Nigeria Key Message Update: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Worst Results Expected During Harvest Period in Conflict Affected Areas, September 2021 – Nigeria
Attacks were reported in several regions of the northeast, notably in the LGAs of Kala Balge, Guzamala, Mobbar, Konduga, Marte and Damboa in Borno tate as well as in the LGAs of Geidam, Yusufari and Tarmua in Yobe tate, resulting in new trips. Due to the conflict and lower than normal incomes to purchase agricultural inputs, the current main harvest is expected to be limited among displaced and poor households. The prices of staple foods remain well above average, limiting access to food for households dependent on the market. Emergency Outcomes (IPC Phase 4) are expected in the hard-to-reach areas most affected, with Crisis Outcomes (IPC Phase 3) expected in much of the North East. As the harvest season sets in, in October, access to food for some households is expected to improve, where the results of Stress (IPC Phase 2) are expected to generalize in the region. However, emergency (IPC Phase 4) and crisis (IPC Phase 3) results are expected to persist in some areas. A risk of famine (IPC Phase 5) persists, where famine could occur if households are cut off from their usual sources of food and income and from humanitarian assistance for an extended period.
In early September, telecommunications services were cut in Zamfara state amid a military operation and restrictions aimed at hampering the movement, information sharing and activities of bandits. Shortly after, in mid-September, telecommunications were cut and restrictions were put in place in parts of Sokoto and Katsina states. On September 29, telecommunications services were also shut down and restrictions were enacted in neighboring Kaduna state. Telecommunications services are now cut off indefinitely. Along with the breakdown of telecommunications, weekly markets and major transport routes were closed, restrictions were placed on vehicle movement, and the sale of firewood was banned. Daily markets remain open in major cities. With the main transportation routes closed, the flow of fuel and commodities into the region is restricted, pushing prices even higher. Limitations on the movement and sale of firewood, as well as the decrease in market availability, have resulted in reduced household incomes, leading to a decline in household purchasing power, especially in the most affected areas. .
Travel, the breakdown of telecommunications and associated restrictions and military operations have disrupted the current agricultural season. Before the telecommunications blackout in the Northwest, conflicts and attacks against civilians were at very high levels, resulting in high levels of displacement. According to IOM, more than 833,000 people were displaced in the northwest and north-central states between late June and late July, with more than half of the displaced people in the northwest. Displaced households have not been able to participate in the agricultural season because they do not have access to land. In the Northwest, some rural households have migrated to urban areas fleeing military operations or ongoing conflicts. Now these households have to return to farmland to continue harvesting activities, delaying the harvest.
Currently, the results of the crisis (IPC Phase 3) are probably underway in the worst affected areas in the northwest. Some of the most affected households are likely to experience emergency (IPC Phase 4) or disaster (IPC Phase 5) situations until harvest is fully established. Current movement and market restrictions are expected to continue to limit household income and delay harvest. While the harvest is expected to improve household access to food as households consume food that they produce themselves, household production in the most affected areas is unlikely to improve access to food. only for a short time. In addition, household income is expected to be below average in the Northwest, as household purchasing power will most likely remain low. From October 2021 to January 2022, the results of the crisis (IPC Phase 3) are even more likely in the most affected areas where households had limited capacity to engage in the agricultural season. Stressed results (CPI Phase 2) are now expected to be more prevalent in parts of the northwest due to persistent constraints on household income.
The main harvest started in September across much of the country, with most households harvesting early-ripening crops such as maize, millet, rice, yams, potatoes and peanuts. Overall, the national harvest is expected to be below average due to conflict, lower access to inputs due to below average income and flooding. The onset of the harvest resulted in an increase in market supplies and household inventories, causing market prices to fall as demand declined; however, prices remain above average. Market dependent households have also increased work opportunities with harvesting activities, improving market access for labor dependent households. As a result, in October, in non-conflict affected areas of the country, food security is expected to improve with minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) results expected to be widespread.
Poor macroeconomic conditions persist despite the fall in annual inflation for the fifth consecutive month to 17.01% in August against 17.38% in July. The decrease in annual inflation is mainly due to lower food inflation, as food prices have fallen with the harvest. Although the annual inflation rate remains well above the expected benchmark of the Central Bank (CBN) of six to nine percent for 2021. According to the CBN, between December 2015, just before the recession of 2016, and September 2021, the NGN in the market depreciated by more than 209 percent. NGNs in the parallel market depreciated more than in the official market. Continued high inflation puts pressure on fuel, transportation and markets, resulting in base prices well above average.