BNP Paribas Q1 profit to fall on tough comparison and headwinds – Earnings Snapshot

By Cristina Roca

BNP Paribas SA is due to publish its first quarter results on Tuesday. Here’s what you need to know:

NET PROFIT FORECAST: The bank is expected to post net profit of 1.25 billion euros ($1.32 billion), according to a consensus estimate provided by FactSet, up from 1.77 billion euros a year earlier.

REVENUE FORECAST: Quarterly revenue is expected to be 11.72 billion euros, according to the same estimate. This compares with a turnover of 11.83 billion euros a year earlier.


– DIFFICULT COMPARISON: BNP Paribas’ net profit and revenue are expected to fall from its results a year earlier, when many banks reported windfall profits amid strong client activity and companies raising funds and are merging as they reposition their growth plans during the pandemic.

–RUSSIA: The bank’s exposure to Russia and Ukraine is limited, with its combined net residual exposure amounting to €500 million. “The impact of direct exposure in Russia is expected to be lower than at other banks,” RBC analysts Anke Reingen and Oliver Dyson said in a note. Nonetheless, investors will be looking to get a better sense of the scale of Russia’s blow.

–WINDS: Some of the bank’s businesses will likely have been hit by market weakness, RBC said, citing insurance, asset management and wealth management. Peers UBS and Credit Suisse flagged weaknesses in their key wealth management units during the first-quarter report, citing a drop in client activity.

Write to Cristina Roca at [email protected]

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